Betting on MMA - Beware of Live Underdogs

As those who have taken part in MMA betting for any length of time know, absolutely anything can happen inside the octagon (or squared circle, for fans of Affliction betting and PRIDE). When two trained fighters are pitted against one another, generally with both holding black belts in one discipline or another, it is difficult to give credence to MMA odds. Most fans would consider every bout to be a coin toss, given that both men or women have an equal opportunity of winning.

This idea is part of the reason why MMA and UFC betting has become such a worldwide phenomenon. Detractors from the sport of boxing left generally because of a lack of competition, meaningless “tune up” fights, and a general confusion over the many sanctioning bodies and weight classes. In the world of mixed martial arts, things come quick and easy. The UFC is the NFL of mixed-martial arts—that’s easy to see. Knockouts can happen at any time—that’s exciting. Not to mention that fighters have entered the cage simply as “street brawlers,” and have had reasonable success. As a result, fans have related to the budding sport.

The problem is that this fascination with the underdog can lead to many bad sports betting choices due to the MMA lines. In fact, more often than not, the favorite in the bout does in fact win. In addition, more fights end in a stoppage of some sort than a decision, meaning that MMA prop betting is also a tremendous idea.

It is important to examine the styles of fighters when preparing to bet on MMA matches as well. If two brawlers are facing off, it is a terrific bet to look on the BetUS sportsbook and choose an outcome such as a knockout or TKO, as the brutes are unlikely to take to the mat. Similarly, if two submission fighters are facing off, a decision is possible, but more than likely, over the course of three to five rounds, one participant will ultimately lock in a hold resulting in a stoppage.

In addition, still consider that promoters are indeed businessmen. A new champion is unlikely to be thrown to the wolves immediately. Dana White, or whomever the champion may be, want to build their champion up with a tune-up bout, similar to boxing, before truly hyping and marketing a pay-per-view attraction.

In the end, those betting on MMA simply need to think reasonably—like a promoter—and err on the side of favourites.


UFC 100 Fights (Bets)   

Fitch vs Thiago
Jon Fitch    -450
Paulo Thiago    +325

Akiyama vs Belcher
Yoshihiro Akiyama    -300
Alan Belcher    +220

Coleman vs Bonnar
Mark Coleman    +250
Stephan Bonnar    -350
 
Danzig vs Miller
Mac Danzig    +160
Jim Miller    -200


Jones vs Brien
Jon Jones    -450
Jake O'Brien    +325
 
Lesnar vs Mir
Brock Lesnar    -240
Frank Mir    +190
 
St Pierre vs Alves
Georges St Pierre    -300
Thiago Alves    +220
 
Henderson vs Bisping
Dan Henderson    -230
Michael Bisping    +180

Source